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You’ve seen the headlines: U.S. Dollar Plunges! U.S. Dollar Surges!

Why should you care? More to the point, why won’t the dollar just hold still?

Actually, in one sense it does hold still. Whatever happens in the currency markets doesn’t change the number of dollars in your wallet — or your bank account. But it can certainly change what your dollars are worth in comparison to other currencies.

If you live in the U.S., the day-to-day swings in the dollar are nothing to worry about. The long-term downtrend in the dollar is another matter. Since the beginning of 2002, the U.S. Dollar Index has dropped more than 30 percent. That’s almost a third of your international purchasing power — gone!

Even worse, the Obama administration’s reckless spending — with the willing complicity of Bernanke’s Federal Reserve — threatens to send the dollar even lower in the coming years.

What can you do about it? Once again, ETFs come to the rescue!

ETFs Make Currency Trading Easy …

Investing in foreign currencies used to be difficult. Your choices were limited to trading risky futures, lining up at the currency exchange window at major airports, or bringing home some funny-looking bills and coins from your international vacation.

Now, thanks to ETFs, you can load up on euros, yen, pesos and pounds just as easily as you buy a stock. You can even go short in some of these currencies with inverse ETFs. So there’s no reason to keep all your eggs in the dollar basket any longer.

Of course, the fact that you can do something doesn’t mean you should do it. Always have a clear goal in mind before you trade any ETF, and make sure you understand the risks. And even if a trade makes sense for you, get started slowly.

For instance, suppose you just want to diversify your portfolio so you can have some protection from a falling dollar. If you don’t want to make a big bet on the dollar against any single currency, take a look at an ETF like the PowerShares DB U.S. Dollar Index Bearish Fund (UDN).

UDN gives you exposure to all the major world currencies.

UDN is designed to replicate a short position in an index that tracks the U.S. dollar against the euro, Japanese yen, British pound, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona and Swiss franc. In other words, UDN goes up as the U.S. dollar goes down against this basket of other major currencies.

Or you can take the opposite position with the PowerShares DB U.S. Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP). This one goes UP as the currencies mentioned above fall when measured against the greenback.

Maybe you have a strong feeling about the British pound. How can you turn your forecast into a profit opportunity? One simple way is buying CurrencyShares British Pound Sterling Trust (FXB), an ETF that holds a position in the United Kingdom’s currency.

Have a yen for the yen? CurrencyShares Japanese Yen (FXY) gives you a chance to profit when the yen is outpacing the dollar.

You can buy the British pound with FXB.

Lately, though, the opposite has been more often the case — the yen is one of only a few currencies weaker than the dollar in recent weeks. That ought to tell you something about Japan’s economy! So is there a way to profit if the yen drops?

You bet there is!

The ProShares UltraShort Yen (YCS) is a bearish yen fund. It’s also 2X leveraged so your gains are amplified if your bet is correct. For instance, if the yen drops 10 percent, this ETF’s shares stand to rise 20 percent. However, if you’re wrong, your losses can add up quickly. Therefore, timing your trades correctly is very critical.

I Want to Highlight One Other
Currency ETF Because It’s So Unique …

The PowerShares DB G10 Currency Harvest Fund (DBV) tracks an index that shifts exposure based on the yield of the ten top world currencies — the G10.

With DBV, you’ll have the equivalent of a long position in the three highest-yielding G10 currencies and a short position in the three lowest-yielding G10 currencies.

If you know anything about hedge funds, you probably recognize this as the so-called “carry trade.” Put simply, it’s borrowing at low interest rates and using the loan to buy higher yielding assets elsewhere. It was an easy way to make big bucks for years. But those managers had their heads handed to them in 2008.

Now it’s beginning to look like the carry trade may start to work again. If it does, DBV is an easy way for you to get access to the same strategy millionaire hedge fund investors are using.

There you have it: Six ETFs to help you get in on the world’s currency markets. However, more than two dozen other currency ETFs and ETNs are now available. Unfortunately I don’t have room here to give you the whole list, but they aren’t hard to find. Look around and you’ll see many ways to get out of the greenback — or bet on its recovery.

Best wishes,

Ron

This investment news is brought to you by Money and Markets. Money and Markets is a free daily investment newsletter from Martin D. Weiss and Weiss Research analysts offering the latest investing news and financial insights for the stock market, including tips and advice on investing in gold, energy and oil. Dr. Weiss is a leader in the fields of investing, interest rates, financial safety and economic forecasting. To view archives or subscribe, visit http://www.moneyandmarkets.com.

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Have you noticed? Gold is starting another run on the $1,000 mark. From April 17 through May 26, gold bullion jumped from $ 867.90 to $953.90 an ounce – a 10 percent gain in less than six weeks. Right now gold may be a little ahead of itself. But I suspect it will be challenging the all-time high of $1,032.70 hit on March 17, 2008, in the near future.

While it’s always been possible to participate in the gold market by purchasing mining company shares, until recently there were only two ways to get direct access to a rising gold market. One was to visit a dealer and buy physical gold, such as gold coins, and store it somewhere safe. The other was to trade futures and options on gold bullion. If you short on money you might want to get a payday advance.

You can still use these tools to invest in gold. But there are some potential drawbacks …

* A thief could break into your house and find the gold you hid – and your homeowner’s insurance might not cover the loss.

* The high leverage of futures trading is tempting but enormously risky. Read those account documents carefully. You are, quite literally, putting your entire net worth at risk with every trade.

* And although options trading can be wildly profitable, your timing has to be nearly perfect.

Now, however, you have an additional, much simpler way to invest in gold: Exchange-traded funds, or ETFs, that are designed to track gold’s price. That’s right. You can get in on the gold market just as easily as you can buy a stock!

GLD: The First Gold ETF

State Street Global Advisors launched the first gold-based ETF in 2004. Now called SPDR Gold Shares, the fund has the easily-recalled ticker symbol GLD.

GLD was revolutionary. Structured as a trust, each share of GLD is equal to 1/10 of an ounce of gold. State Street had the shares listed on the New York Stock Exchange, and GLD turned into an instant success.

Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery. And GLD didn’t have the market to itself for long. In 2005, iShares introduced a very similar product, the iShares COMEX Gold Trust, ticker symbol IAU. (If you remember high school chemistry, you know AU is the symbol for gold on the periodic table.)

There are some minor technical differences between these two ETFs. But GLD and IAU offer essentially the same thing: An easily-traded security that tracks the price of gold bullion almost perfectly.

As with other ETFs, GLD and IAU allow institutional investors to "create" and "redeem" shares in exchange for the underlying portfolio, which in this case is gold bullion. This creates an arbitrage opportunity. If the share price of GLD drifts too far above or below the actual gold price, professional traders push it back into line very quickly.

Which ETF should you consider buying? It’s really a personal preference. Both are huge and very liquid, though GLD is much larger than IAU. Just remember that every ten shares you buy gives you the equivalent of one ounce of gold. And you don’t have to store it under your bed.

Leveraged Gold!

I mentioned earlier that futures trading involves leverage and risk. I don’t recommend it for most people. However, if you want to use a little bit of leverage to trade gold, there are less-risky ways to do it …

PowerShares DB Gold Double Long ETN (DGP), launched in early 2008, is a quick and easy way to leverage gold’s price movements without the risk of a futures or an options account. DGP tracks an index of gold futures and is designed to return twice the change in the index.

Just as GLD drew competition from other ETF sponsors, DGP has a near-twin in ProShares Ultra Gold (UGL), which also moves two times the daily price change of gold bullion.

These leveraged funds are structured differently from normal ETFs. DGP is actually not an ETF. Instead it’s an ETN: An exchange-traded note. What’s the difference? Functionally speaking, ETFs and ETNs look very similar, but the actual structure is quite different …

An ETN is a debt obligation of a bank, in DGP’s case it’s Deutsche Bank. That means you’re taking credit risk when you buy an ETN. If Deutsche Bank should fail or go bankrupt, you could lose money even if gold goes up. (See my February 6, 2009, Money and Markets column to learn why ETNs may be riskier than they look.)

Meanwhile, UGL is a "commodity pool" rather than an "investment company" like most ETFs. ProShares uses gold futures to get the necessary leverage, but the pool structure insulates investors from margin calls.

Does this mean you should avoid DGP and UGL? No, not at all. It means that with the added leverage, they are different types of funds with different risk factors that you should consider.

Investing is all about risk. The smart thing is to know the risks and use them to your advantage. And when using leverage, understand that if the underlying index or the price of gold goes down, your fund’s share price can fall twice as fast.

DGP and UGL are both good ways to speculate in gold if you are in a position to watch the trade closely and can afford the added risks. But if you want more of a long-term core position in gold, GLD and IAU are probably better choices.

There you have it: Four easy ways to profit from gold with minimum hassle. You can buy GLD, IAU, DGP or UGL from any stock broker, either a traditional firm or an online discount brokerage.

I’ll be back next week with more ETF ideas for you. Good luck!

Best wishes,

Ron Rowland

This investment news is brought to you by Money and Markets. Money and Markets is a free daily investment newsletter from Martin D. Weiss and Weiss Research analysts offering the latest investing news and financial insights for the stock market, including tips and advice on investing in gold, energy and oil. Dr. Weiss is a leader in the fields of investing, interest rates, financial safety and economic forecasting. To view archives or subscribe, visit http://www.moneyandmarkets.com.

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Storm #3
Auto Sales Down 44 Percent!

At their peak in February 2007, U.S. and foreign-owned companies sold automobiles in America at an annual pace of 16.6 million units.

Last month, their sales pace plunged to 9.3 million, a decline of
44 percent (including the best performers like Toyota and Honda).

Again, as with housing, we saw a tiny uptick in the prior month, hailed by high officials as a “sign” of improvement. Yet, as with housing, it was weaker than all prior “signs of a turn” over the past 26 months – each of which was followed by a sharper plunge.

Any lights at the end to Detroit’s dark tunnel? Only those of three speeding freight trains:

• The Chrysler bankruptcy, despite all the talk of a “quick and easy” procedure, is not only frightening U.S. car buyers away from the Chrysler brand, it’s also scaring them from other U.S. and foreign makers. And it’s not only hurting auto dealers and parts suppliers, but also smacking auto lenders. Meanwhile …
  
  
• GMAC, the nation’s largest auto lender, is already in its death throes, with the government now estimating it could suffer additional losses of a whopping $9.2 billion over the next two years. Will the Obama administration bail it out? Perhaps. But it would still have to downsize its operations, throwing another monkey wrench into General Motors’ sales. Meanwhile …
  
  
• General Motors is now sinking even more rapidly toward bankruptcy than it was just a few months ago. According to last week’s New York Times column, G.M., Leaking Cash, Faces Bigger Chance of Bankruptcy …

“Even after receiving $15.4 billion in federal loans, General Motors is once again on the brink of financial collapse.

“The automaker’s first-quarter earnings released Thursday showed that G.M. was losing more money and sales than it was in late December, when the government began its bailout.

“With its cash reserves down to the bare minimum and its revenue plunging, G.M. seems more certain each day to be heading toward a bankruptcy filing. …

“The company’s chief financial officer, Ray Young, called the drop … ‘a staggering number,’ and said consumers were showing increasing concern about G.M. products because of the potential for bankruptcy.”

General Motors’ CFO added: “Once you start losing revenues, you get yourself into a vicious cycle from which you cannot recover.”

Sound familiar? It should. It’s the same vicious cycle I’ve been warning about for many moons – falling revenues prompting mass layoffs, and mass layoffs driving down revenues.

Storm #4
Biggest Decline in Consumer
Credit Ever Recorded!

Any economist counting on the consumer to get things going again had better go back for some more Rorschach tests …

… because you don’t need a therapist to interpret the image depicted in my chart below. It shows very clearly how the nation’s lenders are dumping consumers and making a mad dash for the exits:

In the third quarter of 2007, banks dished out $44 billion in net new loans on credit cards, autos, and other consumer credit (excluding mortgages).

Then, just 12 months later, in the third quarter of 2008, that giant credit machine collapsed to a meager $8.7 billion, a decline of 80 percent!

But the collapse didn’t end there. In last year’s fourth quarter, not only did new credit disappear, but lenders actually pulled out of the consumer credit market to the tune of $19.5 billion.

And they did it AGAIN in the first quarter of this year, pulling out another $12.2 billion.

It is the biggest collapse in consumer credit ever recorded.

Now do you see why I’m recommending a shrink for any economist fixated on a recovery?

They know how important credit is. They know that few Americans have the savings to splurge on consumer goods. And they’re tired of knowing that a recovery is virtually impossible without credit.

And yet here we are, with the biggest-ever collapse in consumer credit – and they’re still searching for the “signs”!

Storm #5
Big Banks!

Whether the government lets big banks fail or not, the impact on the economy is similar: A massive contraction of bank loans and credit, sabotaging attempts to revive credit flows and stimulate the economy.

Reason: These banks must build capital quickly, and the only realistic way to do so is by cutting back on their lending.

The official stress test results released Thursday on 19 U.S. bank holding companies were supposed to help determine exactly how much capital they’ll need, and the total came to $75 billion.

That’s no small amount. But the stress tests will go down in history as the world’s most elaborate effort to paint lipstick on a pig.

To show you why, first, let me provide our analysis based on data from TheStreet.com Ratings, the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), and the banks’ first-quarter financial statements. Then I’ll show you why I believe the official results grossly underestimate how much capital the banks will need and how much pressure they’ll be under to slash lending.

We find that …

• Seven institutions – JPMorgan Chase & Co., Citigroup, Wells Fargo & Co., Goldman Sachs Group, GMAC LLC, SunTrust Banks, Inc., and Fifth Third Bancorp – are at risk of failure and may have to cut back lending dramatically to stay alive.
  
  
• Eight institutions – Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, PNC Financial Services Group, US Bancorp, BB&T Corp., Regions Financial Corp., American Express Co., and Keycorp – are borderline, meaning they could be at risk of failure with worsening economic or financial conditions and will also have to cut back on lending.
  
  
• Only four institutions – MetLife, Bank of NY Mellon Corp., Capital One Financial Corp., and State Street Corp. – appear to have adequate capital to withstand worsening conditions. But even they may voluntarily cut back their lending in an attempt to maintain their current financial health.

Moreover, of the $11.6 trillion in assets held by the 19 institutions, those likely to cut back dramatically represent $6.56 trillion, or 56.5 percent, of the assets; while borderline institutions hold $4 trillion, or 34.7 percent.

Only $1 trillion – just 8.8 percent – of the assets are held by institutions with adequate capital, based on our analysis.

In contrast, the government is trying to persuade us that most have plenty of capital … the rest can easily raise it … and none will have to slash lending in a way that would sabotage the prospects for an economic recovery.

So what explains this vast discrepancy between the official conclusions and ours?

The simple answer: Three unmistakable deceptions in the government’s stress tests …

First deception: The assumptions.

To come up with estimates of future losses, the government assumed what they call “a more adverse” scenario. But their more adverse scenario is actually less adverse than the current reality!

Hard to believe? Then just look at their own numbers in the chart the Fed published recently:

• Their “more adverse” scenario is predicated on the presumption that the GDP will contract no more than 3.3 percent this year. But in actuality, the GDP is already contracting at an annual pace of 6.1 percent!
  
  
• Their “more adverse” scenario also assumes that unemployment will average 8.9 percent this year. But unemployment has already reached 8.9 percent in April, and no one – not even economists fixated on recovery signs – is anticipating anything but a further rise.

Either they’re delusional. Or they’re cheating at solitaire.

Second deception: No mention of systemic risk!

The banking regulators have published two major white papers on the stress tests – “Design and Implementation” plus “Overview of Results.” However, in these papers, they have failed to even mention the greatest risk of all: systemic risk.

This is the risk that …

• A few key players in highly leveraged instruments like derivatives could default on their trades.
  
  
• These defaults could set off a series of failures, with the most severe impacts felt by banks that hold the largest share of the derivatives in the country.

This is the giant risk that the Government Accountability Office (GAO) wrote about in its landmark 1994 study, “Financial Derivatives: Actions Needed to Protect the Financial System,” warning of “a chain reaction of market withdrawals, possible firm failures, and a systemic crisis.”

This is the giant risk that triggered the collapse of Bear Sterns, the failure of Lehman Brothers, and the $180 billion bailout of America’s largest insurer, AIG.

It’s the giant risk that AIG executives themselves wrote about in their recent memorandum, “AIG: Is The Risk Systemic?,” warning of a “cascading impact on a number of life insurers already weakened by credit losses” … and “a chain reaction of enormous proportion.”

It’s the giant risk that the International Monetary Fund is most concerned about when it warns of another $3 trillion in global losses due to the banking crisis.

It’s the giant risk that prompted former Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson to literally drop to his knees last September, begging Congress for $700 billion in bailout funds for the banking industry.

Since that day, the U.S. economy has suffered the worst back-to-back GDP declines in over 50 years, burning the nation’s fuse even closer to a blow-up.

And yet, suddenly, in a massive undertaking that was supposed to accurately evaluate the banks’ exposure to these dangers, it’s also the giant risk that has been scrupulously scrubbed from 59 pages of official white papers, a half dozen press releases, plus multiple public pronouncements – all about the stress tests, all without a single mention of systemic risk.

This omission is both deliberate and unforgivable.

It means the stress tests have failed to fairly evaluate the credit exposure of each bank to defaults by their trading partners. And it means the tests are creating a false sense of security for investors and the public that can only lead to greater mistrust, more loss of confidence, even panic.

The omission is especially misleading for large banks that dominate the derivatives market … would be at ground zero in any meltdown … and would therefore be among the first to suffer massive losses.

The prime example: The OCC reports that, at year-end 2008, JPMorgan Chase (JPM) held $87.4 trillion in notional value derivatives, including $8.4 trillion in credit default swaps.

(To see for yourself, click here to download the OCC’s latest report; scroll down to page 22; and check out the top line “JPMorgan Chase Bank NA.” Note: The next to the last column “Total Credit Derivatives” is 99 percent made up of credit default swaps, according to the OCC.)

Why is this such a big problem? For several reasons:

• Although it’s cut back a bit, JPM still has 43.6 percent of all the derivatives held by all U.S. commercial banks, or $17 trillion more than Bank of America and Citibank combined. Among the 19 bank holding companies in the stress tests, that puts JPM closer to ground zero than any other bank.
  
  
• It’s well known that credit default swaps are the highest-risk sector of the derivatives market. And yet, in this sector, JPM has 52.8 percent of the total held by all U.S. commercial banks, or nearly double the total held by BofA and Citi. This puts JPM even closer to ground zero.

• JPM execs insist they’re smart and know how to handle their risks very neatly. But if that were the case, why did they suffer a whopping $2.5 billion loss in their credit default swaps in the fourth quarter? (OCC, page 27, Table 7, line 1, last column.)
  
  
• The OCC also reports that, for each dollar of capital, JPM still has $3.82 in total credit exposure. Mind you, that’s JPM’s exposure to just one kind of risk (defaults by trading partners) in just one kind of instrument (derivatives). In addition, JPM is also assuming market risks in derivatives plus a series of risks in its other investing and lending operations. (OCC, page 13, table at bottom of page, line 1, last column.)
  
  
• Despite all this, in their “more adverse” scenario, the banking regulators estimate JPMorgan Chase’s total “counterparty and trading losses” will not exceed $16.7 billion, a fraction of the true potential losses in a financial crisis.

With the fatal omission of systemic risk from their analysis, the government concludes that JPMorgan Chase is in good shape and does not need any additional capital.

The same omission leads to a similar conclusion for Goldman Sachs, despite the fact that Goldman has over $10 in total credit exposure per dollar of capital, or nearly triple the credit risk of JPMorgan Chase.

The only realistic conclusion: Both these institutions will need huge amounts of capital, driving them to cut back massively on new lending.

Systemic risk is the elephant in the room. Everyone knows it’s there. Everyone understands the dangers. But they’re afraid of the answers. So they dare not ask the questions.

The fundamental answer, though, is clear: Systemic risk is what drove the financial markets into a deep freeze seven months ago; and it was that storm which helped drive the economy into a tailspin.

Today, systemic risk is not gone. If anything, it’s far worse.

Third Deception: Improper influence.

In its white paper, the Federal Reserve admits that the stress tests were based, to a large extent, on each bank’s self-evaluation – not only for loan loss estimates that can be derived from past data, but also for the future performance of trading accounts, which can be far more subjective.

Moreover, each institution was allowed to appeal the final results, and several banks strenuously negotiated for more favorable grades. They even got regulators to accept their projections of future revenues, treating those future revenues almost as if they were cash in the kitty.

In contrast, we never permit the companies we evaluate to influence our evaluation process or our results. To do so would defeat the entire purpose of the exercise. But much like conflicted Wall Street rating agencies, that’s essentially what the bank regulators have done – from start to finish.

Put simply, the stress tests were too easy; the banks took the exams home with cheat sheets; and if they didn’t like their final grade, they could get the examiners to give them a better one.

Yet despite all these fudge factors, the government still estimates these institutions could suffer $600 billion in additional losses over the next two years.

And this is being portrayed as another “sign” of recovery?!

My view: We will have a recovery someday. But only AFTER we honestly recognize the grave mistakes of the past and own up to the hard sacrifices still ahead.

Until that happens, I’m staying the course, investing my own money in a way that protects me from the dangers and gives me an opportunity to profit from the next decline … which, by the way, promises to be the biggest of all.

If you want to follow along with me, check your inbox for an alert that I’ll soon be sending you personally – with the sender name “Martin D. Weiss, Ph.D.”

Good luck and God bless!

Martin

This investment news is brought to you by Money and Markets. Money and Markets is a free daily investment newsletter from Martin D. Weiss and Weiss Research analysts offering the latest investing news and financial insights for the stock market, including tips and advice on investing in gold, energy and oil. Dr. Weiss is a leader in the fields of investing, interest rates, financial safety and economic forecasting. To view archives or subscribe, visit http://www.moneyandmarkets.com.

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Any economist fixated on so-called “signs of a recovery” needs to have his head examined.

As I’ll prove to you in a moment, the hard-nosed reality is that five major economic cyclones are in progress at this very moment.

The storms are not abating. Nor are they changing direction. Quite the contrary, what you see today is, at best, merely a deceptive calm before the next, even larger tempests.

For investors who follow Wall Street, it could be fatal.

For contrarian investors, however, this insanity opens up some of the greatest opportunities in many years: Precisely when we see plunging barometers all around us, we also have a new surge of hype on Wall Street, driving stock prices higher.

Result: The rally has lowered the cost of contrary investments precisely when their prospects are best. Consider the five storms, and you’ll see exactly what I mean …

Storm #1.
Plunging Jobs

On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that job losses were running at a slightly slower pace than in the first quarter. So Wall Street cheered.

But it’s a joke, and the 539,000 additional Americans out of work aren’t laughing.

Nor are the 23 million people – 15.8 percent of the work force – who are officially unemployed … are struggling with lower paying part-time jobs … or have given up looking for work entirely.

Look. In December 2007, there were 138.1 million jobs in America. Now, there are only 132.4 million.

So even if you accept the government’s tally of the narrowest unemployment measure, 5.7 million jobs have been lost.

Plot those figures on a chart and the picture is absolutely unambiguous: Jobs in America are collapsing. Right here and now!

Where’s that “slightly slower pace of collapse” they’re raving about? You’d need a microscope to see it.

Storm #2
U.S. Housing Starts Down 77.6 Percent!

Housing is the nation’s largest industry. With it, the entire global economy boomed in the mid-2000s. Without it, a recovery is next to impossible.

The big picture: Housing starts, the best measure of the industry’s health, peaked at an annual pace of 2.3 million units in early 2006.

Now, they’re running at barely more than a 0.5 million units.

That’s a decline of 77.6 percent – three-quarters of America’s largest single industry wiped out.

Yes, back in February, there was a tiny uptick: Starts rose from 488,000 to 572,000. And everywhere we heard voices cheering the “spectacular” jump in housing starts.

What they didn’t tell you is that the so-called “jump” was actually smaller than six of the seven minor upticks we’ve seen in housing starts since 2006. Nor did you hear them say much when this measure fell anew in March.

Subscriber, this industry is not recovering. It remains in a state of near total collapse.

The only major change: Lenders have given up waiting for a recovery that never comes. So they’re throwing in the towel, unloading huge inventories of foreclosed properties at fire-sale prices. And they’re calling that a “recovery”?

This investment news is brought to you by Money and Markets. Money and Markets is a free daily investment newsletter from Martin D. Weiss and Weiss Research analysts offering the latest investing news and financial insights for the stock market, including tips and advice on investing in gold, energy and oil. Dr. Weiss is a leader in the fields of investing, interest rates, financial safety and economic forecasting. To view archives or subscribe, visit http://www.moneyandmarkets.com.

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Jon Waraas mentioned Provident-Direct.com, in a recent blog post. What’s special about them is that they probably offer the highest APY on a savings account.

Jon said “Signing up with them isn’t hard at all. You just have to fill out a few pages of personal info and then give them your current banking info so they can deposit a few small deposits into your account. Once you see them in your account you then confirm the deposits and then your ready to go. It total it took me 3 days to sign up.

High Yield Online Savings Accounts (Again, I am not making any money if you sign up with one of these banks)
Providentdirect = 3.25%
ING Direct = 2.50%
E-Trade (affiliate link) = 3.01% (I know a few happy people using e-trade) “

No minimum Balance and No Monthly fees !!

What are you waiting on ? If you’re looking for other competitive online bank rates, you should take a look at these savings account rates. Rates aren’t as high as they once were, which is all the more reason to find a good rate. You can also take a look at the best CD rates to lock in a rate if you find a worthwhile rate.

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Just for the fun of it. “Once upon a time a man appeared in a village and announced to the villagers that he would buy monkeys for $10 each. The villagers, seeing that there were many monkeys around, went out to the forest and started catching them. The man bought thousands at $10 and, as supply started to diminish, the villagers stopped their effort. He next announced that he would now buy monkeys at $20 each. This renewed the efforts of the villagers and they started catching monkeys again. Soon the supply diminished even further and people started going back to their farms. The offer increased to $25 each and the supply of monkeys became so scarce it was an effort to even find a monkey, let alone catch it! The man now announce d that he would buy monkeys at $50 each! However, since he had to go to the city on some business, his assistant would buy on his behalf. In the absence of the man, the assistant told the villagers: ‘Look at all these monkeys in the big cage that the man has already collected. I will sell them to you at $35 and when the man returns from the city, you can sell them to him for $50 each.’ The villagers rounded up all their savings and bought all the monkeys for 700 billion dollars. They never saw the man or his assistant again, only lots and lots of monkeys! Now you have a better understanding of how the WALL STREET BAILOUT PLAN WILL WORK” Well actually, the villagers in our situation will keep on buying and selling monkeys. Originally posted by Bacchus at GNN

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This guest post is by ‘mortgagespecialist’, a member of www.mortgagefit.com, the world’s largest mortgage community.

In the last week of October, 2008, the demand for mortgage application dropped to an eight-year low. According to a trade group, this has been propelled by an approximately 30% decline in demand for mortgage refinancing because the borrowing expenses have gone up.

The seasonally adjusted mortgage application index of The Mortgage Banker’s Association that comprises both home buying and home refinance loans, skidded 20.3% to 379.9 for the week ending 31st October, 2008. This has been labeled as the most pathetic showing since the month of December 2000.

From early September 2008, a drastic swing has been noticed in the application requests for home purchase and mortgage refinancing while global financial markets were facing turmoil.

A number of government interventions targeted at cutting down mortgage expenses still have not been able to control the situation.

Average 30-year fixed mortgage rates went up by 0.21% to 6.47% in the last week of October 2008 and this corresponded to the level of the week ending 10th October, 2008.

As per that trade group, the interest rate for fixed rate mortgage loans is inching closer to the highest rate of 6.59% of this year that was attained in the summer. Moreover, this is much higher than the 2008 low of 5.49% in the month of January, 2008.

According to the analysts’ opinion, there is no basis to anticipate that there would be a turnaround in the housing industry when 30-year fixed mortgage rates are on the upper limits for a period of six years, unemployment is at a 5-year high and still soaring, as well as an additional supply of houses that have not been sold is forcing prices to go down further.

Growing concerns about probable job cuts have lowered the confidence of the consumers and this has also stirred up a panic about an intensifying recession and led to reducing demand for home buys.

In October 2008, planned job cuts or retrenchments at U.S. based firms soared to an approximately 5-year high and this was an increase of 19% since September 2008. As per the report of Challenger, Gray & Christmas, an outplacement firm, this resulted from the problems stemming from banking and housing industries that impacted the wider economy.

Home prices in the U.S. have gone down higher than 20% off the ceiling that was fixed in the summer of 2006 on the basis of the Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller index. The prices are usually expected to lose another 10%.

The Mortgage Banker’s Association stated that its seasonally adjusted purchase index slumped 13.9% to 260.9 in the last week of October 2008, the minimum since the month of December 2000. At the same time, in the last week of October 2008, its refinancing applications index dipped 27.8% to 1,075.4.

In the summer of 2008, the number of mortgage refinancing applications had decreased because mortgage rates escalated during this period, resulting in the index to drop to a significant low till late August, 2008.

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From CNN: “During his campaign for the presidency, Barack Obama explained where he stands on many of the economic issues that matter most to Americans.”

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Consumer confidence is important to the economy. It is the driving force behind the public’s willingness to spend money, and as such, businesses rely on confident consumers to keep them afloat.

Consumer confidence is a difficult thing to measure, but the latest Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) from Nationwide Building Society, which is based on a survey of consumer opinion, rates consumer confidence at its lowest in at least four years (the index did not exist before 2004).

The evidence is there: budget supermarkets are boasting their highest profits in years, sales of new cars have fallen 21% in a year, and more established High Street chains such as John Lewis and BHS have announced significant falls in profits. It would seem that consumers are becoming increasingly eager to save money where possible.

Consumer confidence and loan availabity

Traditionally, consumer confidence has primarily been a concern for providers of consumer goods and services. Banks and building societies, meanwhile, can sometimes benefit from reduced consumer confidence: when customers do not spend their money, it stays in their bank accounts, which provides funds for financial institutions to do business with. It also encourages taking out loans to finance more expensive purchases, which earns the lender interest.

However, with the uncertainty surrounding the financial sector at the moment, this situation could change. With a number of banks merging and others reporting large falls in profits, the old cliché of keeping savings under a mattress might not be such an exaggeration.

However, a spokesperson for Think Money said that savings are still very important – not only for financial security, but for the good of their lenders too. “Consumer confidence is important to lenders, because they too rely on continuous business,” she said. “If lots of customers withdraw their savings in a short period of time, the banks could be left with very little money to do anything with, meaning they would have little money left to fund loans and other forms of credit. In a worst-case scenario, they could even fail.

“Our advice to consumers is not to panic and to try to carry on as normal. Take confidence from the fact that lenders are still offering loans to customers, which they simply wouldn’t do if the money wasn’t there.

“The Government’s £50bn rescue plan, combined with the recent half-point base rate drop, will only serve to improve lenders’ ability to offer loans – it may just take a little longer to find the right deal.”

Free Guest post by loan and mortgage specialists www.ThinkMoney.com

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